By Vladimir Isachenkov
Associated
Press
December 26, 2009
MOSCOW – Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched
to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario
is unlikely. Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to
Apophis. He said his agency might
eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space
agency and others to join the project.
When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered
in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37.
Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than
18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters.
NASA had put the chances that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 as 1-in-45,000. In October, after researchers recalculated
the asteroid's path, the agency changed its estimate to 1-in-250,000.
NASA said another close encounter
in 2068 will involve a 1-in-330,000 chance of impact.
Don Yeomans, who heads NASA's Near-Earth
Object Program, said better calculations of Apophis' path in several years "will almost certainly remove any possibility
of an Earth collision" in 2036.
"While Apophis is almost certainly not a problem, I am encouraged
that the Russian science community is willing to study the various deflection options that would be available in the event
of a future Earth threatening encounter by an asteroid," Yeomans said in an e-mail Wednesday.
Without
mentioning NASA's conclusions, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the
planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said.
"People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would
allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people,"
Perminov said.
Scientists have long theorized about asteroid deflection strategies. Some have proposed
sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft
to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or hitting it with nuclear weapons.
Perminov wouldn't
disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn't require any
nuclear explosions.
Hollywood action films "Deep
Impact" and "Armageddon,"
have featured space missions scrambling to avoid catastrophic collisions. In both movies, space crews use nuclear
bombs in an attempt to prevent collisions.
"Calculations show that it's possible to create
a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision," Perminov said. "The
threat of collision can be averted."
Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy
under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov's statement as a signal that officials
had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids.
"Apophis is just a symbolic example, there
are many other dangerous objects we know little about," he said, according to RIA Novosti news
agency.
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